Over in Billboard ($), the mag’s retail columnist, Ed Christman, discusses some of the numbers that have the record industry paralyzed. First, he notes, CD sales were down another 16 percent in January from last year. Given the thrust of his column, he’s focusing on the effects these drops will have on traditional sellers of hard-copy CDs. His main point is that the industry isn’t dead yet; that acts like Josh Groban (who had the best-selling album last year) have very low digital sales, and even a Radiohead is selling a respectable number of physical CDs.

More interesting are these grafs, emphases added:

In the digital world, the labels are getting their heads handed to them on pricing. Not so in the physical world, where labels get a 65% margin, versus a 35% split for retail, which on an $18.98 list comes out to about $12 per album for the label.

[…]

The mobile carriers are just too big, and can command anywhere from 50% to 60% profit margins of music configurations, leaving labels with the 50%-40% remainder. In digital downloads, profits may be split 70% for the label versus 30% for retail, but Apple is still calling the pricing shots, so that 70% profit means $7 versus the $12 a CD brings in.

Christman’s the expert, but I’m not sure that $12 figure is typical, particularly for new releases. Even if it’s $10, however, that’s a hidden 30 percent decline in sheer dollar sales that doesn’t get mentioned much. In crude terms, in other words, even if digital downloads completely supplanted physical sales, the industry could look forward to a 30 percent decline in profits.

Previously: The Year in CD Sales: It couldn’t have happened to a nicer group of people.